https://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z-7/...
There are reports that Russia is still keeping a decent-sized force (1/3 of what was previously there) north of Kiev (on Belarus side). If true, this would effectively continue to pin UAF forces around Kiev, not allowing them to fully redeploy to Donbass or elsewhere (perhaps why Zelensky only requested 15,000 to be sent, and not the whole force in the area, which some have estimated anywhere in the 50k – 70k range or more). The reason being of course that if they were to leave Kiev undefended, the much faster Russian maneuver force could rapidly blitz in under their noses and capture Kiev.
Now the Pentagon is stating that Russia has positioned 40 BTGs around the Donbass, adding a new 10,000 troop infusion, and Phase 2 is ready to kick off any moment. This by the way is a confirmation of the new reality where they have backtracked on the original “180 BTGs” just as I’ve written previously, and are now using more realistic numbers. This is further evidence that Russia is not utilizing the amount of troops in theater as they wanted us to believe.
Now on this topic, as Phase 2 is set to begin, let’s talk tactics or ‘Why the UAF Is About To Get Smashed’.
One of the most important takeaways from the first phase of this conflict has been that the UAF stands no chance whatsoever against Russian forces in a straight up head-on, full frontal fight. To understand the reasons for why that is, you must understand the basic structure and functions of the Russian units, including the infamous BTG (battalion tactical group). Without going into too much detail, just know that unlike U.S. forces which have some of the larger force coefficients like artillery, rockets etc more on the Corps level, the Russian units have them down to the battalion level, allowing faster maneuvering forces to have their own massive firepower capabilities and direct decision making.
But besides this ability to outmaneuver an equivalent Ukrainian force with far more firepower, just understand that the Russian BTG comes equipped with large precision artillery capabilities, in the form of 2S19 Msta for the more elite groupings. Ukraine’s artillery has been surprisingly well implemented, but it is still no match for a full Russian artillery unit equipped with its own detachment of spotters, counter-battery systems, scouts and the like. In general, the Russian units will have more fires(artillery) density per engagement, and at greater ranges with better accuracy differentials.
There has not been a single recorded Ukrainian victory in a full head-on fight, with the arguable exception of some of the engagements in the Bucha/Kiev area where we saw a column or two of Russian light cavalry forces take decent losses and retreat, but these were light VDV detachments with their own special objectives, not much protection, etc., and they took risky chances which led to ambushes.
But the majority of large scale engagements in these modern peer-to-peer conflicts mostly consist of medium to long range artillery duels. The only time tank/mechanized forces typically come into play is during transport or repositioning/redeployment, or once the artillery has softened the defense enough—or more commonly has ‘routed’ them—the other forces will begin moving in to finish them off.
The ONLY way the UAF has scored any recorded successes at all so far is via asymmetric and mostly ambush operations on MOVING columns. The reasons for this are many, such as the fact that U.S. feeds satellite intel to UAF forces to alert them of exactly where larger RF columns are moving and where they’re likely headed. This allows UAF forces to setup ambushes in depth at forward areas. The secret to how they do this is via RTP (Registered Target Point). The concept is very simple: a UAF artillery unit will shoot at a road with spotters watching and feeding them corrections until the artillery ‘solution’ is perfectly honed onto the center of the road. That artillery will then be covered with camo. Then as the Russian convoy passes that RTP mark, a hidden spotter will give the signal by radio and the UAF artillery will score instant perfect accuracy kills.
This is all fine and good. But when two, let’s just say equally-sized, forces do a classic position battle where they have taken their positions, dug in, both are aware of each other’s dispositions more or less with an accuracy dependent on the effectiveness of their ISR scouts and drone surveillance teams, etc. In this type of direct face off akin to a classic confrontation between two forces like in the days of Napoleon, the Russian force will always handily destroy the Ukrainian force 10 times out of 10 with minimal losses to itself, as all the advantage in this setup goes to the Russian side. As mentioned before, the reasons for this are simple:
Russia can bring a higher density of artillery firepower to bear – more units, higher quantity across the contact line, period.
Though Ukrainian units are no slouches (particularly the elite in Donbass) and should be commended for their skill, they are still inferior in training and capability compared to RF artillery troops. It may not even be a huge edge, but it’s an edge nonetheless. Sure they have the experience edge, but the RF artillerymen are highly trained, and are already gaining tons of valuable experience on the fly – they learn fast.
The RF equipment is far superior. We’re talking highly modern Msta 2S19s (superior to ANY artillery unit even in the U.S. arsenal, a fire rate 4-5 times higher than U.S.’s M109 equivalent, with greater range, etc.) with pinpoint accuracy, longer ranges, higher RPM (~10rpm to Ukraine’s maybe 3-4), better sights and optics, better surveillance capabilities as Ukraine mostly uses prosumer DJI drones which can be good for shortrange tactical stuff, but have limited range, duration, and optics compared to Russian Orlan-10s and the like. And don’t get me started on the legendary Krasnopol ammunition which the 2S19s can and HAVE been firing in Ukraine, which is a laser guided artillery munition that flies exactly to its pinpointed, laser-designated (by Orlan-10, etc) target, even if the target is moving. And keep in mind, in most cases the UAF won’t even have any 2S3 Akatsiyas or Gvozdikas or 2S7 Peonies anymore, but rather will use either BM-21 Grad or legacy Soviet towed artillery like D-30 howitzers or equivalent (the latter being far inferior for variety of reasons).
So in short, Russia can bring to bear firepower that is more accurate, longer range, faster shooting, and in greater number, all while having more ammo/fuel for it, etc. So what is the big point I’m making with all this. It is the following:
The ‘maneuver war’ which gave Ukraine certain ambush opportunities seems to be coming to an end. Russia is concentrating troops for the ‘final battle’ of Donbass, which will be a conventional, frontal war fought in the manner described above, with massive artillery fires opening the salvos and mechanized forces moving in to attrition off the routers. The major problem for Ukraine this presents is, this may be survivable when you have space to retreat and can continue falling back, away from the massive artillery advantage. But when the noose continues to close on the cauldron, the UAF forces will find themselves in a situation of continual concentration. They will have a smaller and smaller area for the troops to consolidate into, with no room for maneuver. And this area will have an increasing number of massive artillery firepower bearing down on it that will outgun and outrange them exponentially. There will be no more asymmetric cheap shots and ambush strikes because Russian forces will not be roaming in rapid, exposed columns on highways, but rather defensively postured with protected flanks, etc, dug in and inching forward one protected-in-depth section at a time. In short, this will be an absolute killzone onto the UAF troops.
We have already had a taste of this in what I’d call the first engagement of Phase 2, even if it hasn’t officially kicked off yet. But the battles in the south of Izyum, around Kam’yanka were in the spirit of what I described above. Not fast maneuvering and ambush/asymmetric warfare, but rather stand-off artillery duels in the spirit of what one commenter recently brought up as the famous Russian ‘Reconnaisance-Strike-Complex.’ And the results were brutal for UAF – I attached the video in the last SitRep showing the fields literally littered with UAF corpses after the battle of Kam’yanka while Russia had very little losses
Εγερθήσεται γὰρ ἔθνος ἐπὶ ἔθνος καὶ βασιλεία ἐπὶ βασιλείαν, καὶ ἔσονται λιμοὶ καὶ λοιμοὶ καὶ σεισμοὶ κατὰ τόπους· πάντα δὲ ταῦτα ἀρχὴ ὠδίνων...